New Missouri Poll. Of Course it’s Tight!

There’s a a reason Jon Mccain spends Monday in Missouri, Barack Obama spent Saturday in Missouri, and Bill Clinton to St. Louis Monday night.

A new poll from Suffolk University has Missouri in the midst of a one point race. It’s John McCain 45% Barack Obama 44%.  The survey is of  600 likely Missouri Voters.  The poll’s 4% margin of error puts the one point difference well within the poll’s Margin of Error. The survey’s director , David Paleologos, however, says he based the survey on the demographics of Missouri from the census figures. in other words, it’s reflection of where Missourians live, the age groups and racial make-up of the state.

 7% of the people in the poll say they remain undecided and another 9% say they could change their minds in the final 2 weeks of the campaign. Paleologossays that shows 16% of Missouri voters may be still making up their minds. That’s a substantial figure.

Some other  results from the poll. Missouri remains solidly in the Bible Belt in this election. While 40% of the folks in the survey cite  the Economy/Jobs as the top issue (40%),  coming in second in Missouri is ‘Moral Values’. Paleologos says  that is unusual. They have not seen the Moral Values topic scoring as high in other states. No other topic, including Iraq, terrorism nor health care score in double digits

The polls shows Missouri voters are very divided on the two candidates.  One third of Mccain’s Missouri supporter says they would be “not at all comfortable” with Obama as president. 29% of the Obama supporters say the same thing about McCain. 

Paleologos believes the polls shows that Obama supporters are more committed to their candidate. 73% say they’re voting FOR Obama.  66% of McCain’s supporters say the same thing.

But some voters are definitely basing their preference on a negative assumption. 21% of the McCain people in the poll says they’re voting AGAINST  Obama. 14% of the Obama support say they’re supporting him as a protest against president Bush. The negative McCain vote from those same people , however is just 6%.

Another interesting fact: McCain win this poll’s ‘Who do You Trust’ question 45%- to 41%. But a majority of the people in this poll  expect Obama to win the White House.  When  they were asked  who do you think will win the race, not who you prefer, it’s Obama  58%-23%.

They also asked a question about Joe the Plumber. 80% of the people in the poll says they know about the suddenly famous Ohio man. But only 8% say his injection into the campaign debate is making them cast a vote for John McCain. Paleologos says while that is not a big number, in a race so tight as Missouri, 8% could be a factor.

So this poll shows Missouri is up for grabs. No surprise. But it also shows Missouri is a very divived state in this campaign and that Moral Values may play more of a role in decidiing Missouri’s 11 electoral votes than in many other parts of the country.

The Suffolk University poll also looked at a another battleground state, ohio. There Obama has a bigger lead. Much bigger than Missouri’s;  it’s 51%-42% Obama. That’s outside of the MOE, and bad news for any Republican candidate because generally the GOP has to have Ohio to win the White House 

Another little newsy fact CNN has another national poll out today. it has Obama leading with 53% of the voter. That’s a national poll, not a battle ground state poll like Suffolk’s, and folks, that’s where the money is–and will remain for the next two weeks.

More coverage later today here on KMBC.com and on Ch 9  of McCain’s visit to Belton. He’s scheduled to hit the stage at 3:45,  as if hitting early newscasts deadlines aren’t hard enough.