3P: Akin “Is Weathering the Storm”, Trails McCaskill by 1 in New Poll
August 30, 2012

The Missouri Senate campaign is a deadlock according to a new poll. The survey, from the Democratic leaning Public Policy Polling firm (3P) indicates Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill has a one-point lead over challenger Todd Akin.
A week ago, Akin lead McCaskill 44-43. Both numbers are will within the survey’s margin of error.
3P declared Akin, “is weathering the storm” of controversy that surrounded his campaign
McCaskill remains unpopular with a substantial chunk of Missouri voters, according to the poll. 55% of the people surveyed disapprove of her work in the senate. 40% approve, 55% disapprove of her.
Akin’s unfavorable rating is 33% favorable, 55% unfavorable. Akin’s favorable rating, however is rising. It is up 11 points from another poll taken last week as the controversy was erupting.
McCaskill is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents up for re-election in 2012.
The Missouri Senate race has changed dramatically during the month of August. Missouri Republicans were banking on defeating McCaskill and flipping the seat from Democratic to Republican when August started.
To some, Akin was the unexpected winner of tough primary. The Republican, however was considered the favorite.
But all that changed when Akin broke into headlines talking about how in a “legitimate rape”, a woman may have the biological capacity to block becoming pregnant.
Nationally, Republican leaders denounced him. He lost millions of dollars in support. He did not bow to intense pressure to drop out of the race.
The controversy has cost Akin. The race is now much tighter than many expected. Akin’s ability to raise millions of dollars for the campaign is still in question.
53% of the people surveyed say they accept Akin public apology for his remarks. The number of people calling for him to drop out of the race has dropped. 37% now say he ought to quit

Far From Dead, Poll Shows Akin Leads McCaskill in Flash Poll After Rape Remarks
August 21, 2012

A poll by Public Policy Polling, (3P) indicates Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin holds a slim lead over Democrat Claire McCaskill, even after the firestorm over his remarks about “legitimate rape”, and his belief it is harder for a women to get pregnant from a rapist.
The poll suggests the controversy is not a mortal wound for Aiken. He’s vowing to stay in the race.
The 3P flash poll shows Akin leads McCaskill 44-43%. The poll was taken Monday night. It sampled 500 likely Missouri voters with a margin of error of 4.4%.
Public Policy Polling does survey work for many Democratic candidates. 3P says no campaign paid for this flash poll.
“Voters were appalled at his comments about abortion, but not so much that they decided to vote Democratic when they were previously planning to support the GOP,” said 3P President Dean deb am in a 3P news release on the flash poll.
3/4th of the poll respondents said Akin’s remarks were inappropriate. That includes 2/3rd of the Republicans.
The poll, however, reports Akin maintain a lead with Missouri independent voters, 45-41, the same lead he enjoyed when 3p lasted polled in Missouri in May.
The poll suggests Democrat Incumbent Claire McCaskill may also have a serious problem.
A poll summary statement says, ” GOP voters dislike McCaskill so much they’re not going to vote for her no matter what their nominee does”

3P: Nixon in Solid Shape
June 1, 2012

Post-Dispatch via Johncombest:

Gov. Jay Nixon remains a “solid favorite” in his reelection bid but he may face a closer race than he did four years ago, according to the latest poll on the Missouri governor’s race from North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling.
The national polling firm’s May 24-27 survey is its first on the governor’s race since a January poll that also showed Nixon in the lead but by a wider margin.
“Jay Nixon remains a clear favorite for reelection, but it’s unlikely he’ll be able to match his 20-point margin of victory from 2008,” PPP President Dean Debnam said in a news release.
Nixon’s Republican challenger will be decided in the August primary. The poll released today shows St. Louis businessman and presumptive frontrunner Dave Spence has “opened up a big lead” over Kansas City attorney Bill Randles. With less than three months to go, Spence is ahead 32-11, according to the poll results.
When matched up for the November election, PPP’s poll showed Nixon leading Spence by 11 points (45-34) and Randles by 14 (46-32).
Still, Spence and Randles – two relative newcomers on the state political stage – have significantly narrowed the gap between themselves and Nixon in the five months since the last poll, the firm notes.
Democrat-affiliated PPP surveyed 602 Missouri voters, including an oversample of 430 Republican primary voters, through automated telephone interviews for its latest poll. The firm claims a +/-4% margin of error. The poll was not conducted on behalf of any campaign or political organization.

Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/political-fix/poll-shows-nixon-in-the-lead-in-missouri-governor-s/article_f008addc-ab5c-11e1-a444-0019bb30f31a.html#ixzz1wXqvB72k

Akin Campaign Claims Only GOP Candidate With Lead Over McCaskill-Kinda
May 31, 2012

Todd Akin’scampaign is boasting about a new Missouri Senate poll. But the boast has some conditions.
In a news release Akin’s campaign manager Perry—- says, "A new Public Policy Poll (3P) released this week shows Akin as the only GOP candidate to beat McCaskill. Although still close, Akin came out with a one-point lead over McCaskill; Treasurer Steelman tied in a dead heat; and Mr. Brunner trailed the incumbent by two points. The same poll shows McCaskill with only a 40% approval rating and 50% disapproval."
While technically correct, that one point lead is well within the 4% margin of error for the automated telephone poll.
The head-to-head match ups between McCaskill and Akin’s rivals, John Brunner and Sarah Steelman are also within the margin.
What’s more, is Akin finished third in the survey. Steelman leads leads the field with 28%, John Brunner 25% and Akin with 23% overall.
The poll also says Brunner has moved up 7 points since the last 3P poll in January.
Steelman has dropped 4% in the same period and Akin remained steady with 23%.

Poll Shows Obama Has a Shot in Missouri
May 31, 2012

A poll indicates Missouri remains a toss-up state in the presidential election. That is a very different perspective on the state’s role in presidential politics this year than many people think.
The survey is from Public Policy Polling (3P), a firm that works mainly with Democratic candidates, gives Obama a 45-44 edge over Republican candidate Mitt Romney. That is well within the margin of error for the poll, of 4%.
For several presidential election cycles, including 2008, Missouri was regarded as a battleground state. That changed after the 2008 election when GOP candidate John McCain edged Obama in Missouri.
Here’s the survey with the January results behind it:

Obama: 45% (45%)
Romney 44% (45%)
Undecided: 11% (9%).

The 3P survey indicates Missourians are not impressed with either candidate. Obama’s approval/disapproval rating remains troubling for the Democrats. Missourians rate Obama 44%-52%.
Mitt Romney’s approval/disapproval rating is not much better, at 38%-50. Romney’s approval rating among Republicans, not surprisingly, has increased substantially since January when the nomination was very much in doubt.
The survey also measured the impact of Romney taking a prominent Missouri politician as a running mate.
Former Missouri Senator John Danforth performs the best in the survey’s imaginary tickets:

Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 44%
Romney-Danforth ……………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
With Senator Roy Blunt on the GOP ticket:

Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 46%
Romney-Blunt …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

With former Senator John Ashcroft on the ticket:

Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 47%
Romney-Ashcroft …………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

None of the three Republicans has been mentioned much as a potential Romney running mate.
Danforth, however, was apparently under very serious consideration as George W. Bush’s 2000 running mate. President Bush selected Dick Cheney to run with him that year and they were elected.
The survey was conducted last week. It was an automated telephone poll of 602 Missouri voters.

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