He’s spent a seven-figure sum and the bulk of his time on the campaign trail courting the Iowa grassroots. Operatives call his expansive Iowa organization the best in the state.
As the only mainstream Republican candidate actively competing in the Ames straw poll—thanks to Mitt Romney’s decision to skip the event and Rick Perry’s presidential race slow-walk—Tim Pawlenty may never have a better opportunity to break through in the 2012 campaign than this Saturday.
With so much firepower behind Pawlenty and so few candidates who have a plausible chance at coming out ahead, Hawkeye State politicos say Ames will be a potentially campaign-changing test of the Minnesotan’s strength.
But if Pawlenty fails to deliver, it will be a grim – and possibly fatal – omen for his underfunded presidential bid.
“The problem Tim Pawlenty has is, he’s doing everything right,” said Iowa strategist Steve Grubbs, a former Iowa GOP chairman and state legislator. “He has the right team in place. He’s spending the money. He’s got a good grassroots strategy and they’re investing the time in the state. So it’s going to be difficult to say they didn’t make a strong effort.”
Added Grubbs: “There’s no reason Pawlenty shouldn’t win this thing. It’s always been won by a sort of establishment conservative.”
Pawlenty and his supporters have worked hard to keep expectations low for the event, with the candidate clinging to the role of underdog despite all the evidence that he has a clear shot at victory. Pawlenty has consistently claimed he simply needs to “show progress” in the event, despite his heavy investment of time and money in the state.
“We’ve been careful not to put a number on what place we’ve been in, only that we think it’s important to show movement from the back of the pack to the front of the pack,” said Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant. “It’s very hard to predict how the other candidates will do and how the results will be interpreted. And so I would just caution people not to obsess too much over the pre-analysis.”
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